BOOKBREAKER AIPatriots vs Bears prediction
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears · Thursday, October 22, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET · Soldier Field · DraftKings line: Bears -3, total 50.5
What the simulations say
We played New England Patriots at Chicago Bears 25,000 times, possession by possession, starting from the sharpest betting market. The Bears won 59% of those games. Against the DraftKings spread (Bears -3), the Bears covered 47% of the time. The median total was 50.0 points, and 80% of simulated games landed between 33.0 and 69.0; the total of 50.5 went over 49% of the time.
| Team | Median points | Low (10%) | High (90%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 23 | 12 | 37 |
| Chicago Bears | 27 | 15 | 40 |
Best number vs DraftKings
No bet in this game beats DraftKings' price by 1% or more in our numbers. When the market is priced right, the honest answer is to pass.
Anytime touchdown chances
How often each player scored in the simulations. Our touchdown model is still unproven against the betting market, so treat these as a guide, not an edge.
| Player | Team | Scored in |
|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | CHI | 42% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | 32% |
| Luther Burden III | CHI | 28% |
| Kyle Monangai | CHI | 26% |
| Colston Loveland | CHI | 25% |
| TreVeyon Henderson | NE | 23% |
| DeMario Douglas | NE | 23% |
| Roschon Johnson | CHI | 22% |