BOOKBREAKER AIPackers vs Lions prediction
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions · Sunday, October 25, 2026 · 4:25 PM ET · Ford Field · DraftKings line: Lions -3, total 53.5
What the simulations say
We played Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions 25,000 times, possession by possession, starting from the sharpest betting market. The Lions won 58% of those games. Against the DraftKings spread (Lions -3), the Lions covered 47% of the time. The median total was 53.0 points, and 80% of simulated games landed between 36.0 and 73.0; the total of 53.5 went over 49% of the time.
| Team | Median points | Low (10%) | High (90%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 25 | 13 | 38 |
| Detroit Lions | 28 | 16 | 41 |
Best number vs DraftKings
Our best number: DET -3 -110, about 1.9% better than DraftKings' price by our estimate. Small edges like this lose often; it's a price comparison, not a sure thing.
Anytime touchdown chances
How often each player scored in the simulations. Our touchdown model is still unproven against the betting market, so treat these as a guide, not an edge.
| Player | Team | Scored in |
|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 53% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | 38% |
| Matthew Golden | GB | 32% |
| Christian Watson | GB | 31% |
| MarShawn Lloyd | GB | 28% |
| Sam LaPorta | DET | 28% |
| Jameson Williams | DET | 27% |
| Tucker Kraft | GB | 23% |