BOOKBREAKER AINHL picks: where DraftKings' price is wrong
Every NHL night we compare DraftKings' price on player props and game lines with the sharpest hockey market: Pinnacle and the betting exchanges (Novig, ProphetX, Polymarket, Kalshi), margin removed, at DraftKings' exact line. When DraftKings pays more than the bet is worth (3%+ on props, 2%+ on game lines), it goes on the card before puck drop, locked with a fingerprint, and gets graded after: $100 on each, wins and losses.
No open NHL bets right now. The next card posts around 5:45pm ET on game days (day games around 11:45am on weekends) on X, or "no edge" when nothing clears the bar.
Tonight's simulations
Likeliest goal scorers tonight
| Player | Game | Goal | Fair price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | COL @ PHI | 43% | +133 |
| Nick Schmaltz | PIT @ UTA | 39% | +157 |
| Auston Matthews | SJ @ TOR | 38% | +161 |
| Dylan Guenther | PIT @ UTA | 38% | +163 |
| William Nylander | SJ @ TOR | 37% | +172 |
| Macklin Celebrini | SJ @ TOR | 37% | +173 |
| Pavel Dorofeyev | ANA @ NYR | 36% | +177 |
| Will Cuylle | ANA @ NYR | 33% | +206 |
| Beckett Sennecke | ANA @ NYR | 32% | +213 |
| Cutter Gauthier | ANA @ NYR | 31% | +222 |
Every NHL game · every player · build a parlay on the sims
Record
The first graded card shows here the morning after.
Our NHL sim's own record
Separate from the card above. Every night the sim flags bets where DraftKings pays 8%+ more than the sim's chance is worth, even when the sharp market disagrees. We don't post these as picks. We track them here until the record shows whether the sim adds anything to the market.
First sim picks are pending.
| Date | Sim pick | Price | Sim | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Elmer Soderblom anytime goal Pittsburgh Penguins @ Utah Mammoth | +800 | 17% | 11% | pending |
| Oct 19 | Connor Dewar anytime goal Pittsburgh Penguins @ Utah Mammoth | +750 | 16% | 11% | pending |
| Oct 19 | Jack McBain anytime goal Pittsburgh Penguins @ Utah Mammoth | +750 | 13% | 9% | pending |
| Oct 19 | Mason Marchment anytime goal San Jose Sharks @ Toronto Maple Leafs | +370 | 25% | 19% | pending |
| Oct 19 | Will Cuylle anytime goal Anaheim Ducks @ New York Rangers | +280 | 33% | 20% | pending |
| Oct 19 | Gabriel Landeskog anytime goal Colorado Avalanche @ Philadelphia Flyers | +310 | 30% | 23% | pending |
| Oct 19 | Oliver Bjorkstrand anytime goal Anaheim Ducks @ New York Rangers | +550 | 19% | 13% | pending |
| Oct 19 | Noel Acciari anytime goal Colorado Avalanche @ Philadelphia Flyers | +900 | 11% | 10% | pending |
Every price we checked: NHL Mon Oct 19 tonight
416 DraftKings prices with a sharp price at the same line, checked 4:17 PM ET. Best value on top; DraftKings' worst prices at the bottom. A positive number is what a $1 bet is worth above fair; negative is what you give up.
| Bet | DraftKings | Fair | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Couturier anytime goal Colorado Avalanche @ Philadelphia Flyers | +700 | +659 | +5.4% |
| Auston Matthews Under 1.5 points San Jose Sharks @ Toronto Maple Leafs | -195 | -208 | +2.1% |
| Pavel Dorofeyev Under 2.5 shots on goal Anaheim Ducks @ New York Rangers | +120 | +116 | +2.1% |
| Ben Kindel Under 0.5 points Pittsburgh Penguins @ Utah Mammoth | -165 | -174 | +2.0% |
| Elmer Soderblom anytime goal Pittsburgh Penguins @ Utah Mammoth | +800 | +785 | +1.7% |
| Mikael Granlund Over 1.5 shots on goal Anaheim Ducks @ New York Rangers | -130 | -135 | +1.6% |
| Noel Acciari anytime goal Colorado Avalanche @ Philadelphia Flyers | +900 | +886 | +1.4% |
| Kiefer Sherwood anytime goal San Jose Sharks @ Toronto Maple Leafs | +390 | +384 | +1.3% |
| Jackson LaCombe Over 0.5 assists Anaheim Ducks @ New York Rangers | +130 | +128 | +1.0% |
| Gabe Perreault Under 1.5 shots on goal Anaheim Ducks @ New York Rangers | +105 | +103 | +0.9% |
| Rickard Rakell Under 0.5 assists Pittsburgh Penguins @ Utah Mammoth | -230 | -236 | +0.8% |
| Trevor Zegras Under 0.5 assists Colorado Avalanche @ Philadelphia Flyers | -210 | -215 | +0.8% |
| Cutter Gauthier Over 3.5 shots on goal Anaheim Ducks @ New York Rangers | +115 | +114 | +0.6% |
| T.J. Hughes Under 0.5 points Colorado Avalanche @ Philadelphia Flyers | -150 | -152 | +0.4% |
| Jake McCabe Under 0.5 points San Jose Sharks @ Toronto Maple Leafs | -255 | -259 | +0.4% |
| Bryan Rust Under 0.5 points Pittsburgh Penguins @ Utah Mammoth | +105 | +104 | +0.4% |
| Bryan Rust Under 0.5 assists Pittsburgh Penguins @ Utah Mammoth | -200 | -202 | +0.3% |
| Christian Dvorak Under 1.5 shots on goal Colorado Avalanche @ Philadelphia Flyers | -115 | -115 | +0.2% |
| Eeli Tolvanen Under 1.5 shots on goal Anaheim Ducks @ New York Rangers | -125 | -125 | +0.1% |
| Artturi Lehkonen Under 1.5 shots on goal Colorado Avalanche @ Philadelphia Flyers | +115 | +115 | -0.0% |
| T.J. Hughes Under 0.5 assists Colorado Avalanche @ Philadelphia Flyers | -340 | -338 | -0.1% |
| Mika Zibanejad Under 2.5 shots on goal Anaheim Ducks @ New York Rangers | -120 | -120 | -0.2% |
| Alexis Lafrenière Under 0.5 assists Anaheim Ducks @ New York Rangers | -200 | -197 | -0.4% |
| Bryan Rust Under 2.5 shots on goal Pittsburgh Penguins @ Utah Mammoth | -180 | -178 | -0.5% |
| Logan Cooley Under 1.5 shots on goal Pittsburgh Penguins @ Utah Mammoth | +140 | +141 | -0.5% |
| Rickard Rakell Under 0.5 points Pittsburgh Penguins @ Utah Mammoth | -110 | -109 | -0.6% |
| Leo Carlsson Under 2.5 shots on goal Anaheim Ducks @ New York Rangers | -165 | -162 | -0.7% |
| Cale Makar Over 0.5 assists Colorado Avalanche @ Philadelphia Flyers | -160 | -157 | -0.7% |
| Dmitry Orlov Under 0.5 assists San Jose Sharks @ Toronto Maple Leafs | -200 | -195 | -0.8% |
| Rickard Rakell Under 2.5 shots on goal Pittsburgh Penguins @ Utah Mammoth | -135 | -132 | -0.8% |
| Mason Marchment Under 0.5 assists San Jose Sharks @ Toronto Maple Leafs | -235 | -227 | -1.0% |
| Sean Durzi Under 0.5 assists Anaheim Ducks @ New York Rangers | -320 | -305 | -1.1% |
| Will Cuylle Under 1.5 shots on goal Anaheim Ducks @ New York Rangers | +130 | +133 | -1.3% |
| Erik Karlsson Under 0.5 assists Pittsburgh Penguins @ Utah Mammoth | -125 | -121 | -1.4% |
| Christian Dvorak Under 0.5 assists Colorado Avalanche @ Philadelphia Flyers | -295 | -278 | -1.5% |
| Jake McCabe Under 0.5 assists San Jose Sharks @ Toronto Maple Leafs | -295 | -278 | -1.5% |
| Easton Cowan Under 1.5 shots on goal San Jose Sharks @ Toronto Maple Leafs | -105 | -102 | -1.5% |
| Gavin McKenna Under 0.5 assists San Jose Sharks @ Toronto Maple Leafs | -225 | -214 | -1.5% |
| Kiefer Sherwood Over 1.5 shots on goal San Jose Sharks @ Toronto Maple Leafs | -110 | -106 | -1.6% |
| Macklin Celebrini Over 0.5 assists San Jose Sharks @ Toronto Maple Leafs | -120 | -116 | -1.6% |
| Auston Matthews Over 1.5 points San Jose Sharks @ Toronto Maple Leafs | +140 | +208 | -22.1% |
| T.J. Hughes Over 0.5 assists Colorado Avalanche @ Philadelphia Flyers | +240 | +338 | -22.4% |
| Easton Cowan anytime goal San Jose Sharks @ Toronto Maple Leafs | +285 | +406 | -24.0% |
| Jaden Schwartz anytime goal Colorado Avalanche @ Philadelphia Flyers | +310 | +448 | -25.1% |
| A.J. Greer anytime goal Anaheim Ducks @ New York Rangers | +600 | +838 | -25.4% |
| Will Cuylle anytime goal Anaheim Ducks @ New York Rangers | +275 | +406 | -25.9% |
| Ben Kindel anytime goal Pittsburgh Penguins @ Utah Mammoth | +310 | +456 | -26.2% |
| Nick Paul anytime goal San Jose Sharks @ Toronto Maple Leafs | +310 | +490 | -30.5% |
| Tye Kartye anytime goal Anaheim Ducks @ New York Rangers | +400 | +659 | -34.1% |
| Jackson LaCombe anytime goal Anaheim Ducks @ New York Rangers | +475 | +871 | -40.8% |
Why this works: sportsbooks like DraftKings set prices for recreational bettors and move slower; Pinnacle and the exchanges take big bets from sharp bettors, so their prices are the best estimate of the real chance. Edges are small and lose often; the record above is the only proof that counts. Analysis and entertainment only, not betting advice. 21+