BOOKBREAKER AILeafs vs Oilers prediction
Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers · Saturday, October 24, 2026 · 7:10 PM ET · total 6.5 · goalies: Sergei Bobrovsky (projected) vs Tristan Jarry
Oilers win
62%
of 25,000 sims
Past 60 minutes
19%
overtime or shootout
Over 6.5
58%
total goals
Oilers -1.5
41%
win by 2+
Average goals in the sims: Leafs 3.1, Oilers 3.9. Each team's scoring is set so the simulator matches the sharp betting market's moneyline and total exactly; the sims then decide who takes the shots and who scores.
Toronto Maple Leafs: who scores?
| Player | Goal | Fair price | 3+ shots | 1+ point |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 35% | +188 | 54% | 63% |
| William Nylander | 32% | +216 | 47% | 58% |
| Kirill Marchenko | 27% | +269 | 40% | 49% |
| Jack Roslovic | 24% | +319 | 38% | 44% |
| Easton Cowan | 22% | +349 | 24% | 48% |
| Gavin McKenna | 19% | +419 | 24% | 40% |
| Vinni Lettieri | 16% | +520 | 21% | 31% |
| Nick Paul | 14% | +596 | 13% | 27% |
| Teddy Blueger | 14% | +632 | 12% | 27% |
| Zack MacEwen | 14% | +639 | 11% | 31% |
| Colton Sissons | 13% | +690 | 10% | 29% |
| Darren Raddysh | 13% | +692 | 49% | 35% |
Edmonton Oilers: who scores?
| Player | Goal | Fair price | 3+ shots | 1+ point |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | 44% | +127 | 64% | 79% |
| Leon Draisaitl | 41% | +141 | 50% | 72% |
| Vasily Podkolzin | 35% | +184 | 43% | 53% |
| Zach Hyman | 25% | +296 | 33% | 36% |
| Kasperi Kapanen | 24% | +314 | 24% | 37% |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 23% | +331 | 25% | 49% |
| Evan Bouchard | 20% | +398 | 36% | 69% |
| Alex Formenton | 20% | +411 | 21% | 37% |
| Colton Dach | 18% | +468 | 16% | 28% |
| Isaac Howard | 16% | +508 | 17% | 32% |
| Trent Frederic | 14% | +601 | 14% | 21% |
| Owen Michaels | 14% | +616 | 9% | 27% |
Build a same-game parlay from these numbers, priced on the same simulated games, in the Bookbreaker app. Our NHL sim is new: it's tied to the market's lines, and its own picks are tracked on their own record. Analysis and entertainment only, not betting advice. 21+
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