BOOKBREAKER AILightning vs Mammoth prediction
Tampa Bay Lightning at Utah Mammoth · Saturday, October 24, 2026 · 8:10 PM ET · total 6.5 · goalies: Dennis Hildeby (projected) vs Karel Vejmelka (projected)
Mammoth win
56%
of 25,000 sims
Past 60 minutes
20%
overtime or shootout
Over 6.5
50%
total goals
Mammoth -1.5
35%
win by 2+
Average goals in the sims: Lightning 3.0, Mammoth 3.4. Each team's scoring is set so the simulator matches the sharp betting market's moneyline and total exactly; the sims then decide who takes the shots and who scores.
Tampa Bay Lightning: who scores?
| Player | Goal | Fair price | 3+ shots | 1+ point |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Hagel | 40% | +152 | 59% | 55% |
| Jake Guentzel | 30% | +232 | 43% | 54% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 27% | +266 | 49% | 56% |
| Ilya Mikheyev | 19% | +437 | 14% | 36% |
| Dominic James | 17% | +502 | 16% | 32% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 16% | +506 | 11% | 29% |
| Pontus Holmberg | 16% | +507 | 17% | 34% |
| Brayden Point | 16% | +527 | 23% | 42% |
| Conor Geekie | 15% | +548 | 12% | 22% |
| Gage Goncalves | 11% | +773 | 10% | 29% |
| John Carlson | 11% | +811 | 32% | 38% |
| Zemgus Girgensons | 9% | +989 | 5% | 23% |
Utah Mammoth: who scores?
| Player | Goal | Fair price | 3+ shots | 1+ point |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Schmaltz | 35% | +187 | 40% | 51% |
| Dylan Guenther | 33% | +201 | 50% | 55% |
| Clayton Keller | 25% | +295 | 33% | 62% |
| Logan Cooley | 24% | +325 | 22% | 48% |
| Lawson Crouse | 23% | +331 | 23% | 37% |
| Anders Lee | 23% | +334 | 27% | 33% |
| Kailer Yamamoto | 21% | +374 | 19% | 45% |
| Vincent Trocheck | 18% | +461 | 15% | 33% |
| Barrett Hayton | 17% | +490 | 19% | 42% |
| Daniil But | 16% | +528 | 10% | 31% |
| Jack McBain | 12% | +710 | 7% | 26% |
| Kevin Stenlund | 12% | +746 | 6% | 30% |
Build a same-game parlay from these numbers, priced on the same simulated games, in the Bookbreaker app. Our NHL sim is new: it's tied to the market's lines, and its own picks are tracked on their own record. Analysis and entertainment only, not betting advice. 21+
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