BOOKBREAKER AILightning vs Avalanche prediction
Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche · Friday, October 23, 2026 · 9:10 PM ET · total 6.5 · goalies: Andrei Vasilevskiy (projected) vs Mackenzie Blackwood (projected)
Avalanche win
54%
of 25,000 sims
Past 60 minutes
20%
overtime or shootout
Over 6.5
48%
total goals
Avalanche -1.5
33%
win by 2+
Average goals in the sims: Lightning 3.0, Avalanche 3.3. Each team's scoring is set so the simulator matches the sharp betting market's moneyline and total exactly; the sims then decide who takes the shots and who scores.
Tampa Bay Lightning: who scores?
| Player | Goal | Fair price | 3+ shots | 1+ point |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Hagel | 41% | +143 | 64% | 55% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 29% | +240 | 53% | 58% |
| Jake Guentzel | 28% | +259 | 47% | 56% |
| Ilya Mikheyev | 19% | +431 | 16% | 37% |
| Pontus Holmberg | 17% | +479 | 21% | 36% |
| Brayden Point | 17% | +481 | 25% | 40% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 17% | +495 | 13% | 31% |
| Conor Geekie | 17% | +504 | 13% | 24% |
| Jeffrey Viel | 15% | +582 | 12% | 28% |
| John Carlson | 11% | +770 | 35% | 40% |
| Gage Goncalves | 11% | +791 | 9% | 32% |
| Zemgus Girgensons | 9% | +955 | 5% | 23% |
Colorado Avalanche: who scores?
| Player | Goal | Fair price | 3+ shots | 1+ point |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | 39% | +159 | 59% | 61% |
| Gabriel Landeskog | 27% | +276 | 27% | 40% |
| Artturi Lehkonen | 24% | +318 | 16% | 40% |
| Martin Necas | 23% | +326 | 32% | 53% |
| T.J. Hughes | 23% | +328 | 23% | 36% |
| Nazem Kadri | 21% | +379 | 37% | 48% |
| Brock Nelson | 21% | +382 | 21% | 34% |
| Cale Makar | 18% | +454 | 37% | 44% |
| Jaden Schwartz | 18% | +470 | 14% | 40% |
| Parker Kelly | 14% | +612 | 10% | 28% |
| Gavin Brindley | 13% | +655 | 8% | 30% |
| Fedor Svechkov | 13% | +663 | 10% | 28% |
Build a same-game parlay from these numbers, priced on the same simulated games, in the Bookbreaker app. Our NHL sim is new: it's tied to the market's lines, and its own picks are tracked on their own record. Analysis and entertainment only, not betting advice. 21+
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