BOOKBREAKER AILightning vs Knights prediction
Tampa Bay Lightning at Vegas Golden Knights · Tuesday, October 20, 2026 · 10:40 PM ET · total 6.5 · goalies: Andrei Vasilevskiy vs Carter Hart
Knights win
50%
of 25,000 sims
Past 60 minutes
21%
overtime or shootout
Over 6.5
45%
total goals
Knights -1.5
29%
win by 2+
Average goals in the sims: Lightning 3.1, Knights 3.1. Each team's scoring is set so the simulator matches the sharp betting market's moneyline and total exactly; the sims then decide who takes the shots and who scores.
Tampa Bay Lightning: who scores?
| Player | Goal | Fair price | 3+ shots | 1+ point |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Hagel | 41% | +145 | 63% | 55% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 30% | +230 | 53% | 58% |
| Jake Guentzel | 29% | +248 | 47% | 57% |
| Ilya Mikheyev | 19% | +423 | 15% | 38% |
| Pontus Holmberg | 18% | +451 | 20% | 38% |
| Brayden Point | 18% | +466 | 24% | 40% |
| Dominic James | 17% | +481 | 18% | 34% |
| Conor Geekie | 16% | +508 | 13% | 24% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 15% | +554 | 12% | 29% |
| Gage Goncalves | 11% | +779 | 9% | 32% |
| John Carlson | 10% | +938 | 32% | 38% |
| Zemgus Girgensons | 9% | +955 | 4% | 24% |
Vegas Golden Knights: who scores?
| Player | Goal | Fair price | 3+ shots | 1+ point |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Stone | 27% | +268 | 26% | 46% |
| Tomas Hertl | 26% | +283 | 26% | 44% |
| Brett Howden | 25% | +306 | 20% | 37% |
| Jack Eichel | 24% | +314 | 34% | 58% |
| Mitch Marner | 23% | +333 | 33% | 56% |
| Trevor Connelly | 22% | +360 | 26% | 34% |
| William Karlsson | 19% | +438 | 20% | 36% |
| Marc Gatcomb | 16% | +526 | 19% | 25% |
| Raphael Lavoie | 16% | +529 | 16% | 32% |
| Ivan Barbashev | 15% | +549 | 18% | 37% |
| Braeden Bowman | 12% | +705 | 8% | 23% |
| Shea Theodore | 11% | +799 | 21% | 39% |
Build a same-game parlay from these numbers, priced on the same simulated games, in the Bookbreaker app. Our NHL sim is new: it's tied to the market's lines, and its own picks are tracked on their own record. Analysis and entertainment only, not betting advice. 21+
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